The Cabinet of Useful Things · No. 013

The Assumption Checker

A strategy looks persuasive, but its assumptions have not been researched or tested.

Read the briefing that issued it →

Cabinet item 013Diagnostic

The Assumption Checker

Use when

A strategy looks persuasive, but its assumptions have not been researched or tested.

Inputs

The strategy, plan, or recommendation.
Its market, audience, geography, and time horizon.
Any evidence already being used.

Find the explicit and hidden assumptions.
Select the five whose failure would most seriously change the decision.
Research evidence for and against each assumption.
Rate its status and volatility.
Name one tripwire and the cheapest useful test.

Produces

A researched assumption map showing what supports the strategy, what threatens it, and what should be tested first.

Five load-bearing assumptions with sources.
A clear status, volatility, tripwire, and test for each.
The assumption that most urgently needs attention.