---
schema: "bureau.tool/v1"
id: bureau-tool-013
title: "The Assumption Checker"
type: "Diagnostic"
time: "5–15 minutes"
source: "https://thefantasticbureau.com/briefs/the-assumption-is-doing-the-strategy/"
publisher: "The Bureau of Fantastic Strategy"
---

# The Assumption Checker

## What it does

A researched assumption map showing what supports the strategy, what threatens it, and what should be tested first.

## Use when

A strategy looks persuasive, but its assumptions have not been researched or tested.

## Give it

- The strategy, plan, or recommendation.
- Its market, audience, geography, and time horizon.
- Any evidence already being used.

## Copy this

Examine the strategy below. Find its explicit and hidden assumptions.

Select the five assumptions whose failure would most seriously change the decision. Research each one using recent, credible sources. Prefer primary research, official data, and direct evidence. Search for contradiction, not merely confirmation.

For each assumption, report:

1. Assumption — one plain sentence.
2. Why it matters — what changes if it is false.
3. Evidence for it — with sources and dates.
4. Evidence against it — with sources and dates.
5. Status — Supported, Uncertain, Challenged, or Unsupported.
6. Volatility — Stable, Changing, or Fragile.
7. Tripwire — a signal that should reopen the decision.
8. Next test — the cheapest useful way to learn more.

Do not invent evidence. Separate facts, interpretations, and missing information.

Finish with the most load-bearing assumption, the assumption most urgently needing research, and one recommended action before the strategy proceeds.

STRATEGY:
[PASTE HERE]

CONTEXT:
[PASTE HERE]

EXISTING EVIDENCE:
[PASTE HERE OR WRITE “NONE”]

## You will receive

- Five load-bearing assumptions with sources.
- A clear status, volatility, tripwire, and test for each.
- The assumption that most urgently needs attention.

---
Filed in The Cabinet of Useful Things · https://thefantasticbureau.com/instruments/